Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
The model leans Liverpool at 44%. Expected goals: Liverpool 1.65, Nottingham Forest 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Liverpool won 1 of their last 5; Nottingham Forest won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 47% | 2.12 | 1.42 | 67% | −19 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | 4.75 | 20% | +7 |
| 2Nottingham Forest | 26% | 3.83 | 7.00 | 14% | +13 |
Pick: Liverpool. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Liverpool −0.5| Liverpool line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.