Newcastle United
Liverpool
The model leans Newcastle United at 37%. Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.77, Liverpool 1.70. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 69%. Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6; Liverpool won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 39% | 2.54 | 4.10 | 23% | +16 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | 3.75 | 25% | −1 |
| 2Liverpool | 36% | 2.75 | 1.85 | 51% | −15 |
Pick: Newcastle United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
- 0–15.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newcastle United 0| Newcastle United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 19% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 22% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.