West Ham United
Charlton Athletic
The model leans West Ham United at 64%. Expected goals: West Ham United 2.30, Charlton Athletic 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. West Ham United won 3 of their last 6; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | 74% | 1.35 | 1.33 | 69% | +5 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.53 | 4.75 | 19% | −1 |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 8% | 12.45 | 8.00 | 12% | −3 |
Pick: West Ham United. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.30 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.9%
- 1–012.1%
- 3–010.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Ham United −1.5| West Ham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 17% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.