Charlton Athletic
Preston North End
The model leans Charlton Athletic at 37%. Expected goals: Charlton Athletic 1.19, Preston North End 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6; Preston North End won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Charlton Athletic | 39% | 2.59 | 2.01 | 47% | −8 |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | 3.40 | 28% | +4 |
| 2Preston North End | 30% | 3.34 | 3.70 | 26% | +4 |
Pick: Charlton Athletic. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Charlton Athletic 0| Charlton Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.