Preston North End
Wolverhampton Wanderers
The model leans Wolverhampton Wanderers at 43%. Expected goals: Preston North End 0.97, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. Preston North End won 0 of their last 6; Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Preston North End | 24% | 4.11 | 3.90 | 24% | 0 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | 3.25 | 29% | +1 |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | 46% | 2.16 | 1.96 | 48% | −1 |
Pick: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers −0.5| Preston North End line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 27% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 24% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.