Wolverhampton Wanderers
Stoke City
The model leans Wolverhampton Wanderers at 51%. Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.57, Stoke City 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6; Stoke City won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wolverhampton Wanderers | 57% | 1.77 | 1.53 | 61% | −4 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | 4.10 | 23% | +5 |
| 2Stoke City | 16% | 6.31 | 5.50 | 17% | −1 |
Pick: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers −1| Wolverhampton Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.