Preston North End
Bristol City
The model leans Bristol City at 31%. Expected goals: Preston North End 1.17, Bristol City 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Preston North End won 0 of their last 6; Bristol City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Preston North End | 34% | 2.96 | 2.82 | 33% | +1 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | 3.40 | 27% | +3 |
| 2Bristol City | 36% | 2.79 | 2.30 | 40% | −4 |
Pick: Bristol City. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Preston North End 0| Preston North End line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.