Bristol City
Portsmouth
The model leans Bristol City at 43%. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.44, Portsmouth 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Bristol City won 2 of their last 6; Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bristol City | 47% | 2.14 | 2.10 | 44% | +2 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.43 | 3.40 | 27% | +2 |
| 2Portsmouth | 24% | 4.15 | 3.30 | 28% | −4 |
Pick: Bristol City. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bristol City −0.5| Bristol City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.