Lincoln City
Portsmouth
The model leans Lincoln City at 62%. Expected goals: Lincoln City 2.23, Portsmouth 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6; Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lincoln City | 71% | 1.40 | 2.20 | 42% | +30 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.18 | 3.30 | 28% | −9 |
| 2Portsmouth | 9% | 10.56 | 3.00 | 31% | −21 |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.23 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −1.5| Lincoln City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.