Derby County
Lincoln City
The model leans Lincoln City at 50%. Expected goals: Derby County 1.13, Lincoln City 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. Derby County won 1 of their last 5; Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Lincoln City | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −0.5| Derby County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.