Lincoln City
Blackburn Rovers
The model leans Lincoln City at 57%. Expected goals: Lincoln City 1.74, Blackburn Rovers 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 64%. Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6; Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lincoln City | 66% | 1.53 | 2.35 | 40% | +26 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | 3.40 | 27% | −3 |
| 2Blackburn Rovers | 10% | 9.87 | 2.82 | 33% | −23 |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.7%
- 2–015.4%
- 0–010.2%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −1| Lincoln City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.