Blackburn Rovers
Queens Park Rangers
The model leans Blackburn Rovers at 37%. Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 1.17, Queens Park Rangers 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6; Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blackburn Rovers | 39% | 2.55 | 2.65 | 35% | +4 |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.11 | 3.30 | 28% | +4 |
| 2Queens Park Rangers | 29% | 3.48 | 2.45 | 38% | −9 |
Pick: Blackburn Rovers. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blackburn Rovers 0| Blackburn Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.