Queens Park Rangers
Cardiff City
The model leans Cardiff City at 50%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers 1.29, Cardiff City 2.04. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6; Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queens Park Rangers | 23% | 4.36 | 1.86 | 50% | −27 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.31 | 3.60 | 26% | −2 |
| 2Cardiff City | 54% | 1.86 | 3.75 | 25% | +29 |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 2.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–27.5%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −0.5| Queens Park Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.