Cardiff City
Sheffield United
The model leans Cardiff City at 53%. Expected goals: Cardiff City 2.33, Sheffield United 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 66%. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6; Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 60% | 1.68 | 2.70 | 34% | +25 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.79 | 3.70 | 25% | −4 |
| 2Sheffield United | 20% | 5.12 | 2.25 | 41% | −21 |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–06.2%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −1| Cardiff City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 22% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 19% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.