Cardiff City
Norwich City
The model leans Cardiff City at 50%. Expected goals: Cardiff City 1.85, Norwich City 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6; Norwich City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Norwich City | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −0.5| Cardiff City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 23% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.