Norwich City
Osasuna
The model leans Osasuna at 37%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.22, Osasuna 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Norwich City won 3 of their last 6; Osasuna won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Osasuna | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Osasuna. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City 0| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.