Derby County
Cardiff City
The model leans Cardiff City at 38%. Expected goals: Derby County 1.48, Cardiff City 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Derby County won 1 of their last 5; Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 33% | 3.02 | 2.05 | 45% | −12 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | 3.50 | 27% | −1 |
| 2Cardiff City | 41% | 2.43 | 3.30 | 28% | +13 |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Derby County 0| Derby County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.