Charlton Athletic
Derby County
The model leans Derby County at 39%. Expected goals: Charlton Athletic 1.09, Derby County 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6; Derby County won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Charlton Athletic | 29% | 3.47 | 2.70 | 35% | −6 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | 3.10 | 30% | 0 |
| 2Derby County | 41% | 2.41 | 2.65 | 35% | +6 |
Pick: Derby County. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Charlton Athletic 0| Charlton Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.