Queens Park Rangers
Bolton Wanderers
The model leans Bolton Wanderers at 41%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers 1.34, Bolton Wanderers 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 6; Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queens Park Rangers | 30% | 3.35 | 1.81 | 51% | −21 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | 3.60 | 26% | +1 |
| 2Bolton Wanderers | 44% | 2.28 | 3.90 | 24% | +20 |
Pick: Bolton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bolton Wanderers −0.5| Queens Park Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.