Blackburn Rovers
Middlesbrough
The model leans Middlesbrough at 38%. Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 0.83, Middlesbrough 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%. Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6; Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blackburn Rovers | 25% | 3.95 | 3.60 | 26% | 0 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.00 | 3.50 | 26% | +7 |
| 2Middlesbrough | 41% | 2.42 | 1.91 | 48% | −7 |
Pick: Middlesbrough. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.9%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Middlesbrough −0.5| Blackburn Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 31% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.