Middlesbrough
Lincoln City
The model leans Lincoln City at 40%. Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.16, Lincoln City 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 6; Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middlesbrough | 28% | 3.53 | 1.39 | 66% | −38 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | 4.75 | 19% | +9 |
| 2Lincoln City | 44% | 2.30 | 6.50 | 14% | +29 |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −0.5| Middlesbrough line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 26% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.