Blackpool
Lincoln City
The model leans Lincoln City at 51%. Expected goals: Blackpool 0.90, Lincoln City 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%. Blackpool won 3 of their last 6; Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blackpool | 18% | 5.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Lincoln City | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.9%
- 0–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 5% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −1| Blackpool line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.