Gillingham
Millwall
The model leans Millwall at 54%. Expected goals: Gillingham 0.85, Millwall 1.96. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%. Gillingham won 1 of their last 6; Millwall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gillingham | 15% | 6.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Millwall | 62% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.9%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.6%
- 1–36.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Millwall −1| Gillingham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 25% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.