Millwall
Wrexham
The model leans Millwall at 50%. Expected goals: Millwall 1.82, Wrexham 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Millwall won 3 of their last 6; Wrexham won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 52% | 1.92 | 2.20 | 43% | +9 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | 3.25 | 29% | −4 |
| 2Wrexham | 23% | 4.37 | 3.25 | 29% | −6 |
Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–26.2%
- 0–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Millwall −0.5| Millwall line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.