Wrexham
Watford
The model leans Wrexham at 53%. Expected goals: Wrexham 2.05, Watford 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Wrexham won 2 of their last 4; Watford won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wrexham | 59% | 1.69 | 1.86 | 50% | +9 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.38 | 3.50 | 27% | −4 |
| 2Watford | 18% | 5.53 | 4.00 | 23% | −5 |
Pick: Wrexham. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.05 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–16.8%
- 3–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wrexham −1| Wrexham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.