Watford
Crawley Town
The model leans Watford at 50%. Expected goals: Watford 1.43, Crawley Town 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%. Watford won 2 of their last 6; Crawley Town won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Crawley Town | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Watford. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Watford −0.5| Watford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.