Watford
Peterborough United
The model leans Peterborough United at 36%. Expected goals: Watford 1.31, Peterborough United 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. Watford won 2 of their last 6; Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Peterborough United | 38% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Peterborough United. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Watford 0| Watford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.