Bradford City
Peterborough United
The model leans Bradford City at 42%. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.45, Peterborough United 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Bradford City won 2 of their last 5; Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bradford City | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Peterborough United | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bradford City. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bradford City −0.5| Bradford City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.