Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Bradford City

20
Won

Peterborough United

The model leans Bradford City at 42%. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.45, Peterborough United 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Bradford City won 2 of their last 5; Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bradford City46%2.18
XDraw29%3.45
2Peterborough United25%3.99

Pick: Bradford City. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.5%
  • 1012.4%
  • 219.1%
  • 209.0%
  • 018.7%
  • 008.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bradford City −0.5
Bradford City lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%24%53%
-0.547%53%
047%27%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.