Peterborough United
Stevenage
The model leans Peterborough United at 37%. Expected goals: Peterborough United 1.14, Stevenage 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6; Stevenage won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Peterborough United | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Stevenage | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Peterborough United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Peterborough United 0| Peterborough United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.