Peterborough United
Mansfield Town
The model leans Mansfield Town at 39%. Expected goals: Peterborough United 1.19, Mansfield Town 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6; Mansfield Town won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Peterborough United | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Mansfield Town | 41% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mansfield Town. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Peterborough United 0| Peterborough United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.