Bristol Rovers
Peterborough United
The model leans Bristol Rovers at 36%. Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.46, Peterborough United 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%. Bristol Rovers won 3 of their last 5; Peterborough United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bristol Rovers | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Peterborough United | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bristol Rovers. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bristol Rovers 0| Bristol Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.