Stevenage
Reading
The model leans Stevenage at 34%. Expected goals: Stevenage 1.08, Reading 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%. Stevenage won 1 of their last 6; Reading won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stevenage | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Reading | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Stevenage. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.6%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stevenage 0| Stevenage line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.