Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Bromley

11
Lost

Reading

The model leans Bromley at 42%. Expected goals: Bromley 1.44, Reading 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. Bromley won 1 of their last 6; Reading won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bromley45%2.21
XDraw29%3.44
2Reading26%3.90

Pick: Bromley. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.44 – 1.02
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.545%55%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 1012.3%
  • 219.0%
  • 208.8%
  • 018.7%
  • 008.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bromley −0.5
Bromley lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%24%53%
-0.547%53%
047%27%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.