Burton Albion
Stevenage
The model leans Burton Albion at 37%. Expected goals: Burton Albion 1.04, Stevenage 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. Burton Albion won 2 of their last 5; Stevenage won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burton Albion | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Stevenage | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burton Albion. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.0%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burton Albion 0| Burton Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 32% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.