Watford
Southampton
The model leans Southampton at 54%. Expected goals: Watford 0.95, Southampton 2.04. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. Watford won 2 of their last 6; Southampton won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 16% | 6.39 | 3.70 | 25% | −9 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | 3.50 | 27% | −4 |
| 2Southampton | 62% | 1.62 | 1.91 | 49% | +13 |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 2.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.2%
- 1–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −1| Watford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 11% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 21% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.