Preussen Münster
Southampton
The model leans Southampton at 63%. Expected goals: Preussen Münster 0.86, Southampton 2.52. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 54%. Preussen Münster won 1 of their last 5; Southampton won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Preussen Münster | 10% | 10.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Southampton | 73% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 2.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–39.1%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −1.5| Preussen Münster line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| +1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.