Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord
The model leans Feyenoord at 51%. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.34, Feyenoord 2.17. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 6; Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Rotterdam | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Feyenoord | 55% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 2.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–16.5%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord −1| Sparta Rotterdam line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 13% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 20% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 22% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.