Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
The model leans Excelsior at 50%. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.83, Sparta Rotterdam 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Excelsior won 4 of their last 5; Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 49% | 2.03 | 2.10 | 45% | +4 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | 3.80 | 25% | 0 |
| 2Sparta Rotterdam | 26% | 3.89 | 3.20 | 30% | −4 |
Pick: Excelsior. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Excelsior −0.5| Excelsior line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.