FC Dordrecht
Excelsior
The model leans Excelsior at 51%. Expected goals: FC Dordrecht 1.06, Excelsior 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. FC Dordrecht won 1 of their last 6; Excelsior won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Dordrecht | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Excelsior | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Excelsior. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–36.2%
- 0–35.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Excelsior −1| FC Dordrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 22% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 24% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.