FC Dordrecht
Feyenoord
The model leans Feyenoord at 65%. Expected goals: FC Dordrecht 0.91, Feyenoord 2.70. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 57%. FC Dordrecht won 1 of their last 6; Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Dordrecht | 10% | 10.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Feyenoord | 74% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 2.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–38.9%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord −1.5| FC Dordrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| +0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| +1 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| +1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.