FC Dordrecht
Jong Ajax
The model leans FC Dordrecht at 43%. Expected goals: FC Dordrecht 1.78, Jong Ajax 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. FC Dordrecht won 1 of their last 6; Jong Ajax won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Dordrecht | 46% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong Ajax | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Dordrecht. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Dordrecht −0.5| FC Dordrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.