Jong Ajax
FC Emmen
The model leans Jong Ajax at 39%. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.89, FC Emmen 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Jong Ajax won 1 of their last 5; FC Emmen won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong Ajax | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Emmen | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong Ajax. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.3%
- 1–05.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong Ajax 0| Jong Ajax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 19% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 18% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.