FC Emmen
Jong AZ Alkmaar
The model leans FC Emmen at 41%. Expected goals: FC Emmen 2.21, Jong AZ Alkmaar 1.92. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 77%. FC Emmen won 3 of their last 5; Jong AZ Alkmaar won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Emmen | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong AZ Alkmaar | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Emmen. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.21 – 1.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.6%
- 3–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Emmen −0.5| FC Emmen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 19% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 20% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 16% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.