Jong AZ Alkmaar
MVV Maastricht
The model leans Jong AZ Alkmaar at 53%. Expected goals: Jong AZ Alkmaar 2.39, MVV Maastricht 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%. Jong AZ Alkmaar won 2 of their last 5; MVV Maastricht won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong AZ Alkmaar | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.89 | – | – | – |
| 2MVV Maastricht | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.39 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.2%
- 1–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong AZ Alkmaar −1| Jong AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 21% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.