MVV Maastricht
Jong FC Utrecht
The model leans Jong FC Utrecht at 50%. Expected goals: MVV Maastricht 1.28, Jong FC Utrecht 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. MVV Maastricht won 4 of their last 4; Jong FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MVV Maastricht | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong FC Utrecht | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong FC Utrecht. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong FC Utrecht −0.5| MVV Maastricht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.