MVV Maastricht
FC Volendam
The model leans FC Volendam at 51%. Expected goals: MVV Maastricht 0.87, FC Volendam 1.70. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. MVV Maastricht won 4 of their last 4; FC Volendam won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MVV Maastricht | 18% | 5.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Volendam | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Volendam. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.0%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.7%
- 1–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Volendam −1| MVV Maastricht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.