Predictions · Eerste Divisie · outside model coverage

FC Volendam

61
Won

FC Dordrecht

The model leans FC Volendam at 53%. Expected goals: FC Volendam 1.79, FC Dordrecht 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. FC Volendam won 3 of their last 6; FC Dordrecht won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Volendam59%1.69
XDraw25%4.00
2FC Dordrecht16%6.31

Pick: FC Volendam. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.79 – 0.82
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.1%
  • 2011.7%
  • 1110.8%
  • 219.7%
  • 007.3%
  • 307.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Volendam −1
FC Volendam lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%25%40%
-0.560%40%
060%23%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%12%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.