FC Groningen
FC Volendam
The model leans FC Groningen at 50%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 1.55, FC Volendam 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. FC Groningen won 3 of their last 6; FC Volendam won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Groningen | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Volendam | 20% | 4.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Groningen. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.8%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Groningen −0.5| FC Groningen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.