Jong PSV
FC Volendam
The model leans FC Volendam at 37%. Expected goals: Jong PSV 1.33, FC Volendam 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Jong PSV won 2 of their last 5; FC Volendam won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong PSV | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Volendam | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Volendam. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong PSV 0| Jong PSV line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.