Almere City FC
Jong PSV
The model leans Almere City FC at 51%. Expected goals: Almere City FC 2.63, Jong PSV 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 75%. Almere City FC won 3 of their last 4; Jong PSV won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Almere City FC | 58% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong PSV | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Almere City FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.63 – 1.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes75% | No25% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Almere City FC −1| Almere City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 18% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.